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Friday, 3 March 2017

Malaysian Electoral Map Series

As Malaysia gears to GE14, we will be looking what are the key factors that are impacting voters' preference for the next elections. Watch this blog space grow with new maps over the coming months.

1) Plantation Scheme Issues

How does a plantation scheme across the country can have so much bearing on the next GE 14? Felda, world renowned program to raise the income of poor rural settlers, has been beset by lower commodity prices, financial mismanagement and questionable purchases.

If you look at the map above, Felda voters are largely located at the marginal seats of the ruling government. Assuming there is one-to-one fight between government and opposition, it only takes 22 seats to change the government of the day. With the introduction of GST in 2015, the effect kicked in on Felda Settlers. A good example was the Rompin By Elections of 2015. Comparing to 2013 and 2015 results of the same seat, ruling government winning margin substantially reduced.

With the fragmentation of the opposition (PR), the possibility of multi corner fight is high. Should that happen, Felda voters will be presented with multiple choices which allows the ruling government win the seat.

2) Challenging Existing Understanding the relation of Electoral Factors